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Live Poker Variance

  1. Poker Tournament Variance
  2. Live Poker Variance Definition
  3. Live Poker Variance

Live Games are Slower. The biggest change, and it will hit you right away, is that live games are. Aggressive Bankroll Decisions. Let’s start with an obvious point: If you don’t have a deep enough.

Poker Tournament Variance

At the beginning of the year my focus was on online poker. I set a specific goal which was that by the end of the year I would be playing 12 tables or more of 25c/50c and beating the level. After a few months of grinding I was on my way. I was feeling confident and thanks to playing tens of thousands of hands of cash game poker. plus the fact that I was working full time and earning a decent salary, I decided to go back to playing live cash game poker. Initially the results were great and for the first time in my life I kept my own and started crushing the live games. I downloaded a great poker app for recording all my sessions and was so happy to see that I was winning 7/10 sessions and making some nice extra cash every month.

Fast forward 2 months and unfortunately the results haven’t continued on the same trajectory. After 24 sessions over the last few months I’ve won money in 54% of the games I’ve played and only made money in 2 out of the last 10. It is runs like this that test your resolve as a poker player and make you question both your ability and approach to the game. Last week I had another losing session, this time it was a combination of bad play on my end and very bad luck, but it wasn’t the fact that I lost money that upset me, it was how I lost the money.
There is an element of poker which can’t be denied and can’t be ignored and that is variance. People call it different things but variance is very simple to understand. There is the norm, which for example is getting dealt pocket aces once in every 220 hands, or flopping a set with a pocket pair in your hand 11.7% of the time, and then there is what happens in reality over a certain number of hands. The difference in the norm and what happens in reality is called variance. In the long run if you are playing with a regular deck of cards in a regular poker game, you will on average be dealt pocket aces every 220 hands. This is a fact and can be proven easily with mathematical software or by looking in a large database of an online poker player.

Primedope variance

Now for interest sake lets say that you play poker with a bunch of friends once a week and on average you play for 5 hours and see 28 hands an hour. In my made up example, you will be dealt pocket aces once every 7.8 hours on average. Now imagine that you have two amazing sessions and within 56 hands you are dealt aces 4 times. This is really positive variance for you and will make you experience a much higher win rate than usual. Unfortunately this type of variance doesn’t last, remember, the stats needs to balance itself out, even though it will almost never be exact, in order for the stats to now balance themselves out, you could go over 6 sessions without being dealt pocket aces. Variance can be a bitch, especially in like poker where it takes much longer to balance things out.

My run of 10 sessions with only 2 wins made me realize this. I had been crushing the game and consider myself to have a decent edge over the average player in the game but a combination of run bad and lack of resolve on my part had resulted in a downswing that has lasted over a month and a half. During the last few sessions I have felt like a prisoner, chained to the outcome of the cards with nothing I could do, a feeling I hate even more than losing. The variance in poker is such that even a winning live cash game player can go many months breaking even or even losing money.

There are only two ways to beat variance. The first is playing through it. As long as you are a winning player and can control your losses, you will get through the bad spells and show a positive balance in the long run. The biggest problem with playing through the negative variance is that it can last a long time, hence my statement earlier that a winning player can go months without showing his true win rate. The second way to beat variance is having a massive edge over the competition. If you put Doyle Brunson in a poker game with a bunch of first timers, Doyle will almost always have a winning session, even if he is experiencing very negative variance. The reason for this is because Doyle has such a high skill level in poker that he is able to maximize his winnings and minimize his losses. In such a poker game, Doyle’s skill level will be the determining factor over his results, not variance.

Live Poker Variance Definition

Acknowledging these facts has humbled me because it has shown that I’m not as good as I believe. I still find myself making horrible calls and getting desperate when the negative variance comes knocking. I think I handle it better than most but it still eats at me. It really bothers me that at this moment I could go 3-6 months breaking even or losing money, simply because the cards are falling very much against me. I can’t push through it quickly because like the example I used, I’m only playing once a week and seeing around 28 hands an hour. For these reasons I have decided to take a break from live poker and concentrate on reaching the goal I set for myself at the start of the year.

The Players Guide To Video Poker Information

Live Poker Variance

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What is variance? While we could go into the mathematical details we will explain variance on video poker machines using real world examples. Variance is one of the characteristics that makes a big difference in the short term results between one game and another. Lets compare two popular machines.
Below you have the pay tables for both full pay Jacks or Better (9/6) and a popular variety of Double Double Bonus (40/10/6). We picked these games for the example as both have a total return in the 99% range and compared side by side make a good example of variance in the real world.
Full Pay Jacks or Better (9/6)
Dbl Dbl Bonus (40/10/6)
Hand PayoutReturn % Hand PayoutReturn %
Royal Flush40001.98%Royal Flush40001.95%
Straight Flush2500.55%Straight Flush 2000.44%
Four of a Kind 1255.91%Four Aces +2-4 20002.46%
Full House 4510.36%Four Aces 8002.78%
Flush 306.61%Four 2-4 + A-4 8002.29%
Straight204.49%Four 2 - 4 4003.08%
Three of a Kind 1522.33%Four 5 - K 2508.16%
Two Pair 1025.86%Full House 5010.86%
Jacks or Better 521.46%Flush306.77%
Straight205.11%
Three of a Kind 1522.59%
Two Pair 512.31%
Jacks or Better 521.16%
Total Return99.5439%Total Return 99.9577%
Variance19.51468Variance41.96707

Variance Explained

You will notice at the bottom of each pay table we have listed the variance. The first machine shows 19.51468 and the second is over double at 41.96707. The biggest difference when you compare the pays are the four of a kind wins. On the Jacks or Better machine they make up 5.91% of the total return while on the Double Double Bonus machine they make up 18.77% of the total return.
You will also notice that on the Double Double Bonus machine the pay for two pair makes up 12.31% of the total while on the Jacks or Better the same pay contributes 25.86% to the overall percentage. It is these changes in the way that pays contribute to the overall pay outs that alter the variance.
Let's say you play 1,000 hands on both of the machines above and do not hit a royal flush or any four of a kinds. At the end of the thousand hands it is more likely that you will still have a good amount of credits left if you were playing the Jacks or Better machine compared to the Double Double Bonus. This is because one of the more common hands, the two pairs pay is a win on Jacks or Better while it is simply your bet back on the second game.
Comparing the two games you will find that the first game will offer a longer run of smaller pays that keep you going while the second machine will be much harder on your bankroll if you do not hit any of the four of a kind ands. This difference is what variance is all about.
The question then comes to mind - Which machine should I play? In the example above the Double Double Bonus would be a better bet over the long term simply because it has a higher overall pay back. But in the short term you have to ask yourself, do you want regular small wins that keep you playing or do you want to have fewer small wins but the chance at the occasional big hit. This is a personal choice so there is no right or wrong answer - it is totally up to you.

Popular Games Compared

Below is a table showing the variance for several popular video poker machine types. This further illustrates the points made above. Note that the higher the number the higher the variance.
GameVarianceGameVariance
Pick'em Poker 15.0055 All American 26.7998
Jacks or Better 19.5146Double Bonus 28.2555
Bonus Poker 20.9040Double Double Bonus 41.9849
Aces & Eights 21.7259 Deuces & Joker 45.5885
Deuces Wild 25.8346Loose Deuces 70.3054
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